Broadcom’s Gain Is Nvidia Stock’s Pain, Says Citi’s Top Analyst

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2025-09-09 21:51:02

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Citi’s Atif Malik, ranked 9th among Wall Street analysts, projects GPUs will retain over 85% of the AI compute market by 2026. However, hyperscaler-designed XPUs like Google’s TPUs and Amazon’s Trainium are growing faster—53% year-over-year in 2026 versus GPUs’ 34%. This shift could cost Nvidia $12 billion in GPU sales, prompting Malik to trim his 2026 merchant GPU forecast by 5%.

Broadcom’s latest earnings highlighted accelerating XPU demand, with Google even offering compute capacity to rivals like Meta and OpenAI. Custom chips are emerging as credible alternatives to Nvidia’s dominance, a risk Malik had previously flagged. Despite lowering his NVDA price target from $210 to $200, he maintains a Buy rating, seeing ~18% upside.

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